New Theory: COVID-19 in the 30-50” North Parallels

One of the questions that I’m frequently asked about COVID-19 is related to temperature: do I think that the virus will fade as the temperature gets warmer in the Northern hemisphere? My answer is still I don’t know. However, after Paula gave me an article to read, and then I read the scientific paper behind the news article, I’m going to change my answer to maybe, and here’s why.

Several virus researchers tracked the path of the virus as it has spread. They focused on a specific weather path within the northern parallels at 30-50 N”—the lime green path in the graphic that shows weather from November 2018 to March 2019 (assuming the weather has been similar this year). When you look at the clusters of cases within specific temperatures (41°F to 52°F) and humidity percentages (47% to 79%), it seems reasonable. It was interesting to me that it’s not a straight line around the earth; as the temperature and humidity vary slightly from location to location, so do the clusters. That doesn’t mean there are no cases outside of that area, but they may have been carried from the clusters out, called community spread, which is unpredictable.

The researchers have also predicted, based on weather projections, where the next clusters may occur as spring proceeds. They caution that this is an examination with just two variables: cases of the COVID-19 virus infections and weather factors. They include a chart where the weather conditions will be right in the coming weeks. That doesn’t mean it will happen; just that it’s possible.

Does that actually answer the question I’ve been asked? No, but it gives us a direction to look. We’ll know more as we move toward summer. Until then, keep washing those hands, taking your supplements, and disinfecting surfaces you and others touch all the time. I’m going to go sanitize the refrigerator handle!

What are you prepared to do today?